Full text of "The absorptive capacity of Palestine"

THE ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY
OF PALESTINE

THE AUTHOR

Abraham Revusky was born in Palestine, spent his boy-
hood in Russia and received his university education in Vienna,
Austria. In 1919 he returned to Palestine and devoted three
years to an exhaustive study of the country's economic and
social conditions. From Palestine he visited a number of
European countries, then came to the United States and joined
the editorial staff of the Jewish Morning Journal (New York) .
He is a member of the paper's foreign news department.

In the 1930's Mr. Revusky went to Palestine twice to make
a detailed survey of the changes that had taken place since his
earlier visit. His book Jews in Palestine, which is the result
of his comprehensive study, is regarded as a standard work on
modern Palestine. He has written other books as well as
many magazine articles on Palestine in a number of languages.
The author is a leading authority on the economic aspects of
Palestine's development.

TOWARD A JEWISH COMMONWEALTH • UNIT II

Published by
THE POLITICAL AND EDUCATION COMMITTEES OF
HADASSAH, THE WOMEN'S ZIONIST ORGANIZATION OF AMERICA, INC.

1819 BROADWAY NEW Y ORK, NEW YORK

25 CENTS A COPY

THE absorptive capacity of a country depends mainly on two
basic factors. One is the character of the country — its size,
climate, fertility, communications and natural resources. The
other is the character of the people who intend to settle there — their
cultural level, creative abilities, and persistence in achieving their goal.
It would be utterly wrong to estimate the absorptive capacity of a
country on the basis of its natural characteristics alone, ignoring the
character of its inhabitants and settlers. It may even be said that the
human factor in the settlement of a country is more important than
the purely geographical problems involved in its colonization. History
knows many instances in which capable and industrious people trans-
formed seemingly poor regions into highly developed and prosperous
countries. New England, for instance, with its meagre soil and lack of
mineral resources never would have become one of the most prosper-
ous regions in the world if not for the energy and resourcefulness of
its Puritan settlers. And did not the Norwegians by generations of
persistent work achieve a high level of culture and prosperity in a
seemingly hopeless mountainous country with a cold climate and a
barren soil?

On the other hand, there are instances of countries blessed by
nature with exceptional possibilities but which sank into decay because
of a population change that put these countries into the hands of
undeveloped peoples. Such a country is Iraq, the ancient Mesopotamia,
the "country between the rivers," exceptionally fertile and suitable for
large scale irrigation. Whereas it was once inhabited by fifteen to
twenty million people, and took a leading part in world history, it
now barely supports its three million Arab inhabitants, most of whom
live in a state of extreme poverty and chronic undernourishment.

OCT

% 1 «?*■■'

Ancient Culture and Present Decay

Let us now apply this general rule to Palestine, predestined to
become the Jewish National Home. There is no doubt that Palestine
once had a much larger population than at present. According to the
Roman-Jewish historian, Josephus Flavius, Palestine, including Trans-
Jordan had a population of seven to eight millions shortly before the
Roman conquest. Even if we regard these figures as exaggerated,
modern historians, weighing evidence from other sources, have reason
to set Palestine's ancient population much above the 1,900,000 people
now living within the historic frontiers of the Promised Land. The
most conservative estimate of Palestine's population before the destruc-
tion of the Second Temple is from 3,000,000 to 3,500,000.

The ability of ancient Palestine to feed such a comparatively large
population, occupied mainly in agricultural pursuits, was due to the
good care taken of the land in Biblical times. According to historical
and archeological evidence the plains of Palestine were then in-
tensely cultivated. Even the slopes of the hills, through an extended
system of man-made terraces, were covered by vineyards and orchards,
or planted with cereal crops. Compared with this highly developed
ancient civilization most of Palestine is now in a state of neglect. The
terraces which once leveled the slopes of the hills and helped to
retain the fertile upper soil were almost all ruined after the conquest
of the country by nomads from the Arabian Desert. The forests which
formerly covered a large part of the hilly country were gradually cut
down for fuel, and their aftergrowth was destroyed by goats roaming
all over Palestine. The terraces and forests gone, the torrential winter
rains washed the upper soil and rocks into the valleys, and to this
day most of the hills present a picture of nakedness and desolation.
Similarly, the disappearance of ancient orchards near the seacoast
facilitated the movement of sand dunes towards the interior. Rolling
steadily to the east, they gradually stopped the course of the streams
flowing from the hilly country to the Mediterranean. The unavoidable
result was the formation of large malaria-breeding swamps.

Since the Jews began the modern resettlement of Palestine about
sixty years ago, some of these swamps have been drained and a
number of hills are again protected by terraces, but these improve-
ments are not sufficiently extensive to change the character of the
country as a whole. There is no doubt that as Jewish settlement
continues, Palestine's soil will gradually regain its former productive-

ness, and the country will once again be able to feed a much larger
population than that which it maintains at present.

Significant Jewish Achievements

The potential productivity of Palestine's soil is proved not only by
historical evidence, but by daily experience in our own time. Certain
localities which were formerly considered useless from the agricultural
point of view are now, after their acquisition and reclamation by the
Jews, producing excellent crops.

Only forty years ago most of the maritime plain between Tel-Aviv
and Haifa looked like a sandy desert. It now contains some of the best
citrus groves in the world. An agricultural family can in normal times
exist there on a parcel of five to six acres of irrigated land.

The valley of Esdraelon, known in Bibical times for its fertility
and left to malaria and decay after the Arab conquest, again produces
abundant cereals and tree crops. Its present population, predominantly
Jewish, is about five times as large as it was before the beginning of
modern Jewish settlement. When plans for bringing some of the
upper Jordan water into the valley of Esdraelon will be realized, its
present relatively large agricultural population can be trebled.

There is a small valley, named Huleh, in the northern part of
Palestine. It contains altogether about forty thousand acres of land,
most of which is under water and covered by swamps. A few years
ago Jewish colonizing agencies under the leadership of the Jewish
National Fund acquired the concession for the development of this
area, reputed to be the most unhealthy spot in Palestine. When the
extensive work contemplated by the Jewish concessionaires is com-
pleted, the valley of Huleh will become a richly productive area,
where truck crops stimulated by abundant water and the warm sun
will be harvested three and four times a year, yielding a livelihood
to a considerable rural population. The Huleh concession provides
not only for the colonization of Jews on reclaimed soil, but for
permanent settlement of the local Arab population. Roaming with
their buffaloes in malaria-infested swamps, these Arabs live in a state
of poverty and disease. Given sufficient plots of irrigated land, they
will attain a high level of prosperity and health. For our experience
has conclusively shown that 30 to 40 dunams (a dunam is about a
quarter of an acre) of irrigated land provides a farmer with a more
regular and secure income than 250 to 350 dunams of dry farm land
dependent on the whims of nature.

Irrigation Possibilities

About ten years ago American experts (Professor Strahorn and
Mr. F. Julius Fohs), after an extensive study of Palestine's irrigation
facilities, reported that, outside of the Negev, a semi-arid and
sparsely populated southern area of Palestine, at least 3,500,000
dunams can be fully irrigated from existing sources. Another study*
estimated the irrigable area in Palestine's five largest plains (Maritime
Plain, Esdraelon, Acce Plain, Jordan Valley, Huleh Valley) as 4,144,800
dunams. Since the time that estimate was made, new and abundant
sources of water have been found in the sub-soil of Palestine, and the
prospect of bringing Jordan water to the Negev for irrigation pur-
poses is now a generally accepted possibility. An estimate of 5,500,000
dunams as the irrigable area of Palestine must therefore now be con-
sidered extremely conservative. Only 400,000 dunams are under irri-
gation today, and in terms of market value, they provide about forty
percent of Palestine's total food production!

The above examples and figures are sufficient to give a definite
idea of the possibilities of Palestine's agricultural expansion if Jews
are given a free hand in developing the water resources of the country
and intensively settling its under-developed areas. Such a land policy
would open up opportunities for settling hundreds of thousands of
Jewish immigrants on the land, but there would be enough land to
provide the Arab agriculturists of the country with irrigated farms,
assuring them a better and more secure living than they can wrest
•from the present neglected soil.

In our further calculation of Palestine's absorptive capacity, we
will limit ourselves to the area west of the Jordan, thus omitting from
our study 37,740 square miles of Transjordan which was separated
from the rest of Palestine by the British Government after the last,
war. This large and very sparsely inhabited land up to 1922 formed
an integral part of Palestine. But even the land west of the Jordan
can absorb millions of Jewish settlers. As soon as 5,000,000 of Pales-
tine's 26,319,400 dunams are brought under irrigation — and this is
below the maximum of irrigable land — the farm population of
Palestine, now amounting to about 800,000, can be increased to at
least two million souls. Keeping our estimates conservative, we shall
limit our expectations to only one million agricultural settlers, thus
leaving a margin for additional demands for land arising from the
natural increase of the present Jewish and Arab farm population.

"Prepared by the author, based on the Report of the Joint Palestine Survey Commission (1928).

Reclamation of the Hills

While the prospects of increasing Palestine's farm population are
based mainly on irrigation, there are great possibilities for increasing
Palestine's agricultural production by more scientific grazing methods
and by the reclamation of Palestine's hill districts. Though not suited for
irrigation, most of Palestine's hilly areas receive enough rainfall to
make possible the growth of forests and tree crops. These tree crops
will improve Palestine's food balance in various ways. For instance,
olive trees, planted on a large scale, will be able to thrive on most of
Palestine's hills as soon as soil erosion is stopped. These will con-
tribute to Palestine's food production both their fruits and the valu-
able oii extracted from them. Carob trees, too, are a valuable asset
from the point of view of Palestine's nutrition. Though their fruits are
not important for human consumption, their pods offer concentrated
and abundant food for milch cows and poultry.

The cultivated area of Palestine now amounts to 7,500,000 dunams,
though only a small part of it — about 400,000 dunams — is under
irrigation. Opinions concerning the maximum of cultivable land differ
greatly. British experts, who considered as "cultivable" the lands that
"can be brought into cultivation by the means of the average Arab
peasant," began with estimates of 12,500,000 dunams (the figure given
by the Director of Lands in 1925) and ended with an estimate of
8,044,000 dunams (the figure given by John Hope Simpson in 1931.)
Jewish experts, on the other hand, consider as "cultivable" any land
that can be reclaimed by modern agricultural methods and machinery;
they therefore estimate the cultivable area as at least 14,000,000 dun-
ams. Some believe that it may be as much as 17,000,000 dunams.
Experience has demonstrated that in all cases where seemingly hope-
less land was acquired by Jews the maximum estimate of Zionist
experts was actually reached.

We may therefore safely conclude that in addition to millions of
dunams of irrigable land there are large areas on the plains and in
the hills which can be brought under cultivation. Such cultivation,
though necessarily less extensive than that of irrigable land, will
nevertheless markedly increase the absorptive capacity of Palestinian
agriculture.

Jewish experience with Palestinian colonization has proved that
for every family settled on the land, four additional families can be
settled in towns and villages, to live from industry, commerce, mari-
time trades, transportation, the professions, etc. We have shown, too,

that Palestine's soil is able to feed at least a million more farmers.
Hence it follows that other branches of human endeavor will be able
to absorb four million additional immigrants. Thus the total absorptive
capacity of Palestine, even within present artificial mandate frontiers,
can easily reach five millions.

Let us not be satisfied, however, with this general deduction. Let
us instead review other important branches of human endeavor and
show their probable contribution to the absorptive capacity of Pal-
estine.

The Industrialization of Palestine

At the beginning of Jewish settlement in Palestine, the opponents
of Zionism used to argue that Palestine could not become an important
industrial country because of its lack of iron and coal. Events have
shown that this handicap was much less serious than it seemed to be.
To be sure, without iron and coal, heavy metallurgical industries like
those of Pittsburgh or Gary, Indiana, cannot be established. However,
the industrial future we envisage for Palestine is based on light indus-
tries directly serving the consumers of the country and producing goods
suited for export to the neighboring Middle East states. Industries of
this sort do not require large quantities of steel. Moreover, during the
last generation iron and steel have lost their former primary position
in the production of machinery and other manufactured products. Cop-
per, nickel, aluminum, magnesium and all sorts of metal alloys are
playing an increasingly important part in the industrial life of the .
world; some of these metals are found in Palestine; others are acces-
sible to it on the same conditions as to other industrial countries.

Similarly, in the sixty years since the beginning of Palestinian
colonization, important developments have taken place in the fuel
and power situation of the world. Coal has ceased to be what it was
at the end of the last century — an essential requirement for industrial
purposes. Fuel oil and hydro-electric power are becoming more and
more important, and both these sources of energy are available in
Palestine. The power which can be generated by the Jordan's drop
from 3,000 feet above to 1300 feet below sea level is yet to be fully
utilized and there is also the probability that the great difference in
levels between the Mediterranean and the Dead Sea will likewise be
utilized for a great hydro-electric development. As for fuel oil, it is
brought by pipe line in increasing quantities from the Iraq fields to
the Palestinian harbor of Haifa where the line terminates. While the
Iraq Petroleum Company now exploits its opportunity to .exacts

monopolistic prices in Palestine, this situation can be expected to
change in the future. There is no valid reason why fuel oil in Haifa
should be more expensive than in the American West. Reasonable
prices for oil will put Palestine's industry on a healthy competitive
basis in the markets of the world.

Mineral Resources

The lack of iron and coal is, furthermore, largely compensated
for by the enormous quantity of useful minerals dissolved in the waters
of the Dead Sea. These minerals — potash, bromine, magnesium,
chlorine and common salt — are becoming progressively more impor-
tant as basic materials in modern chemical industry. It has been esti-
mated that the value of the minerals in the waters of the Dead Sea
exceeds the annual national income of the United States.

In addition to the resources of the Dead Sea, Palestine possesses
sizeable desposits of sulphur and phosphates which enhance the coun-
try's prospects of becoming an important world chemical center. Since
the most important constituent elements of chemical fertilizers abound
in its soil and waters, there is a real possibility of providing Pales-
tine's agriculture with inexhaustible quantities of cheap fertilizers
which would result in greatly increased farm production. Thus the
mineral resources of Palestine, combined with its climate and irriga-
tion facilities, will make possible the production of food for domestic
purposes and for export in quantities which would seem fantastic
compared with the present agricultural output of the country.

Jews were the pioneers in the development of Palestine's power
resources and also in the extraction of minerals from the concentrated
waters of the Dead Sea. Both developments are still in their initial
stages. After the war Jewish energy, if not hampered by artificial
restrictions, will undoubtedly exploit Palestine's mineral resources and
power possibilities on a large scale and thus create a broader basis
for a large and continuously expanding industry.

Agricultural products, too, will extend that basis. Even now many
Palestinian industrial establishments are engaged in processing the
products of the country's fields and orchards. Starting originally with
flour mills; oil presses, and wine cellars Palestine's agricultural indus-
try now includes canning, the manufacture of drugs and essential
oils, the extraction of vitamins, the production of jams, juices and
other industrial food specialties. The manufacture of alcohol and sugar
recently begun in the fertile valley of Esdraelon is a further example

of an agriculturally based industry. With the increase in Palestine's
irrigated area, this kind of industrial activity will grow enormously.

Local and Imported Raw Materials

Experience, however, has shown that Palestine's industry need not
always depend upon locally produced raw materials. Due to its geo-
graphic position as the hub of three continents and in the immediate
vicinity of the Suez Canal, the largest communication artery of the
Old World, Palestine has unlimited possibilities for obtaining raw
materials from the rich countries of India and the Near East at prices
not exceeding those paid in the large industrial centers of the United
States and Europe. Palestine, has, therefore, great prospects of devel-
oping important industries based on imported raw materials. It is
particularly fitted for the development of those industries, based to a
large extent on imported materials, which can be sold in great part in
foreign markets; shipping costs in these cases are of very minor import-
ance in the calculation of prices. The cost of importing these raw materi-
als will be offset by the export of articles manufactured from them.

Palestine already possesses a sizeable number of industries of this
type which have amply proved their vitality and stability under adverse
conditions. Skepticism greeted their advent in almost every case. When,
for instance, an American Jew established a factory for artificial teeth
in a suburb of Tel-Aviv about twenty-years ago, people doubted his
judgment, and argued that Palestine hardly required a sufficient num-
ber of artificial teeth to provide work for a comparatively large fac-
tory. Yet Palestine-made artificial teeth have not only captured the
limited markets of the Near East but are in great demand in Great
Britain as well.

Years later the same skepticism met the enterprise of two Jevish
experts from Germany who began to manufacture razor blades in
Rishon le Zion, the oldest Jewish colony of Palestine. Those razor
blades are made of high quality Swedish steel, and over-conservative
economists thought that because the raw material was imported the
factory would not be able to compete with the European product. The
razor blade factory has been most successful. It is even said that British
soldiers in the Middle East now prefer the Palestinian blades to
those of their own country. The secret of this success is simple. The
cost of steel is only an insignificant part of the total cost of a razor
blade. The chief item in computing cost is labor. Hence the difference
in the cost of transporting Swedish steel plates to one country as

against another is insignificant when calculations of the total C0S1 Oi
the blades are considered.

A third example illustrating this general principle is the recent
establishment of diamond grinding and polishing shops in Palestine,
These were greatly expanded after the Hitler conquest of the Low
Countries which were formerly the center of that so largely Jewish
industry. The diamond shops of Palestine now employ over 3,000
workers, and the industrial diamonds they cut are used in large
quantities by American defense factories.

Jews as Builders of Industry

The above examples prove that industrial articles, in the produc-
tion of which labor costs are larger than the cost of raw materials,
can be produced in any place where cheap transportation is available
and where able and diligent people are eager to work. Both conditions
are met in Palestine. Its geographic position makes it a natural center
of industry and commerce, and the industrial experience and ability,
the technical knowledge and — most important of all — the inexor-
able needs of Jewish immigrants, contribute to industrial progress.
Everyone who has had an opportunity to meet these people and to
see their eagerness to achieve success will not doubt that a large
Jewish immigration will further enlarge Palestine industry. A Zionist
leader once said, "The Jewish immigrant arriving in Palestine carries
absorptive capacity in his baggage." There is much truth in this
epigram.

Even now, in spite of many handicaps, Jewish industry in Palestine
is achieving a high level of development. At the end of 1942, with a
total investment of 90 million dollars, it employed about 55,000
workers. For a community of only 550,000 people this is an imposing
achievement Palestinian industry has proved of great help to the
Allied war effort in the East, providing the Allied Armies with cement,
barbed wire, electrical ^batteries, clothing, boots, drugs, surgical instru-
ments and much other necessary equipment.

When estimating the absorptive capacity of Palestine's industry in
the future, we must take into consideration the fact that in the course
of its development it has had to overcome many difficulties, including
a restricted local market and the lack of technical facilities, normal
credit conditions and tariff protection. Given better political condi-
tions, which in this case would mean more protection for local industry
and equal rights for its products abroad, the development of Palestine's
industry should proceed at a much quicker pace.

In contradistinction to agriculture, it is difficult to gauge the absorp-
tive capacity of Palestine's industry. We cannot conscientiously set any
figure for the maximum number of Jews it could employ in the
future. We are firmly convinced that its potentialities are great. Pro-
vided the future world is based on peaceful exchange of products and
services among all the countries, Jewish energy and Jewish needs will
make Palestine one of the most developed industrial centers of the
world.

Maritime Trades

Palestine's leading economic planners emphasize the need for the
establishment of a merchant marine which will be engaged mainly in
traffic to and from Palestine. The lack of such a fleet has been one of
the weakest points in Palestine's Jewish economy. Italian, French and
Greek shipping companies have transported Jewish immigrants to
Palestine, and Scandinavian, Dutch and British steamers have monopol-
ized the shipping of Palestine citrus products. Through these shipping
companies, large sums brought by Jews to Palestine were diverted to
other countries. When there will be a Palestinian Jewish merchant
marine to serve Palestine's increasing foreign trade, thousands of
additional families will be able to live on the earnings of those
employed as sailors, ship-builders, stevedores and other maritime
workers. By giving a great deal of attention to this important source
of revenue, the Jews of Palestine may at some future date become an
important factor in international maritime trade outside of Palestine.
When we remember that some European countries derive up to a
third of their national income from shipping on the high seas, we
can appreciate the great prospects of increasing Palestine's absorptive
capacity through these channels.

Along with the establishment of a merchant marine and its
concomitants, ship-building and harbor work, a considerable source of
national income could be opened by greater development of the fishing
trade. This would give opportunity for livelihood to thousands of new
immigrants.

The Jews of Palestine have already made a beginning in the
development of maritime trades. While Jews in the diaspora have been
estranged from this field of work, Palestine Jewry has been actively
interested in its development during the last ten to fifteen years.
Young men have been sent abroad to become experienced sailors,
fishermen and navigators. Jewish and non-Jewish experts from Europe
have been encouraged to go. to Palestine to lead and advise Jewish

workers engaged in these activities. The new harbor of Tel Aviv, buill
exclusively by Jewish effort, has become a great school ol maridmi
experience, and, in addition, Jews now have an important pan m in-
activities of the great harbor of Haifa where no Jews worked U
recently as twenty years ago. Fishing villages, combining fisheries wilh
agriculture, have been established on the shores of the Mediterranean
These beginnings, as well as the work of a few thousand yOung Jews
in the sea and harbor tasks connected with the British Eighth Army,
have created a substantial foundation on which much can be buill m
the future.

Palestine as a Tourist Center

There are many other branches of economic activity which may
serve to increase Palestine's absorptive capacity after the present war.
Palestine's holy places have always attracted great numbers of tourists.
Its medical facilities give promise of attracting many visitors. The
influx of outstanding medical specialists exiled from Hitler Germany,
and the modern facilities for healing and research provided by Hadas-
sah's magnificent hospital in Jerusalem, are giving Palestine a growing
reputation as a medical center. The establishment of a pharmacolocy
institute and a pharmaceutics laboratory by Hadassah and the Hebrew
University is an important forward step in stimulating the develop-
ment of the pharmaceutics industry. The continuation of efforts in the
spheres of medicine and health and the further development of
Palestine's spas — the wells of Tiberias, of Gadarah, of Calliroe, and
the Dead Sea, — may make Palestine an important cure and recreation
center. Everyone who knows how beneficial such activities were for the
economic life of Germany and Czechoslavakia before the present war
will not accuse us of exaggeration if we say we can expect thousands
of people to find employment as a result of the development of
similar medical facilities in Palestine.

Commerce, so important in the economic life of other Jewish
communities, does not play an exceptionally large part in Jewish
Palestine. This is due to the great stress laid by Palestine's Jewish
pioneers on agriculture, industry', extraction of minerals, and other
primary and productive occupations. Jewish Palestine is proud — and
rightly so — of the more normal distribution of trade and occupations
among Jews after two generations of hard effort. But even while
avoiding the stress on commerce characteristic of Jewish communities
in the diaspora, Palestine must still, realistically thinking, expect a
larger development of commerce in the future. The Jewish National
Home is bound, to become a great trading avenue between the undcr-

developed countries of the East with their enormous wealth o'f raw
materials, and the industrially developed countries of Europe with
their surplus of manufactured goods. Commerce of this sort which
helps in the final analysis to develop civilization and raise standards
of living, offers Palestine of the future another great opportunity to
increase its absorptive capacity for Jewish immigration.

GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

The above facts and analyses ought to convince those who have mis-
givings concerning the extent of Palestine's absorptive capacity. While
figures dealing with the future cannot be scientifically exact, we may
safely conclude that on the basis of facts already established, our
previous estimate of 5,000,000 new immigrants above the present Jew-
ish and Arab population of Palestine should be accepted as conserva-
tive. Even after 5,000,000 new immigrants enter Palestine its popula-
tion density will be less than that of Belgium or Holland. If it had as
many inhabitants per square mile as Belgium, Its population could
reach 8,500,000 rather than the present 1,600,000. There is no reason
why eventually Palestine could not match Belgium's- density of popu-
ation and even exceed it. True, Belgium possesses large deposits of
coal and iron which are lacking in Palestine. It does not, however,
possess Palestine's inexhaustible sources of minerals, and it cannot
match its agricultural production. The geographic location of Pales-
tine in the vicinity of the Suez Canal may prove just as important an
asset for its future development as the location of the Low Countries
at the estuary of the Rhine, and on the approaches to the English
Channel. Furthermore, the ability, devotion and energy of the Jewish
people in Palestine are no mean factor in the equation.

Post-War Possibilities

We have not yet considered the time element in this problem.
How long should it take to absorb 5,000,000 Jews into Palestine? The
answer depends mainly on the intensity of Jewish colonization and on
the acuteness of our need for a National Home. It is quite possible
that Palestine could absorb 5,000,000 Jews in a generation or two but
may be unable to accept a million people in a shorter period — say
two or three years immediately after the present war. In other words,
the problem of Palestine's immediate absorptive capacity must not be
considered identical with its ultimate prospects as a land of Jewish
settlement. While the limits of Palestine's ultimate capacity are deter-
mined by the natural and human factors considered in our discussion,

the possibility of accepting a large number oJ people immediately

. after the war is dependent entirely on great Jewish and International

I efforts. Should a large wave of Jewish immigration surge to Palestine

j§ immediately after the war, many immigrants will necessarily have to

be temporarily employed in large public works before they are able

to find a normal place in Palestine's expanding Jewish economy The

electrification of the country, large irrigation works, drainage, highway

building, and reclamation of the hills are important examples of such

public projects. In themselves they will help to increase Palestine's

absorptive capacity.

Such vast undertakings could not possibly be financed by the lim-
ited sums annually collected by the present Zionist agencies for the
upbuilding of Palestine. All their means will have to be used for con-
tinuing their regular work. They will have to buy land, establish
settlements, encourage industries, conduct vocational training, assist
health activities, promote education, etc. — not allowing the slightest
interruption to interfere with these highly important tasks. Indeed,
these regular Zionist activities will have to be carried on at a far
swifter pace.

^ In other words, to cope with the mass immigration expected after
this war, we will need extraordinary Jewish effort, plus United Nations
assistance and long term loans. If we provide the means for the
initial settlement of refugees, the outside world may help us to further
this great undertaking. But as always in Jewish history, we will have
to take the initiative. We must help ourselves if we wish to have
reasonable prospects of help from others. The Jews of the democra-
cies cannot afford to be inactive in the transition period after the war
when the need for Palestine by large uprooted Jewish masses will
be most urgent. Should Zionism fulfill its duty, even the immediate
absorptive capacity of Palestine will prove to be much larger than we
expect at present. We trust that their new life in Palestine will make
it possible for many seemingly broken immigrants to recuperate physi-
cally and discover creative powers in fhemselves. After they leave
their temporary labor camps, they will enrich the normal economy of
Palestine with their work, knowledge and initiative.

Many times in Palestine's recent history the plans and estimates
of Zionist leaders seemed conservative, measured against the creative
force of incoming Jewish masses. Our conception of Palestine's ab-
sorptive capacity has repeatedly had to be revised upwards because
of achievements brought about by Jewish abilities and needs. We
hope and believe that this will be true after this war as well.

Progress of Palestine since World War I

Jewish and General Population

Year General Jewish Percentagt

1919 700,000 58,000 8.3

1922 757,182 83,794 11.1

1931 1,035,141 174,610 16.9

1941 1,556,922 520,000 33.4

Growth of Jewish Agriculture

Year Number of Settlements No. of Inhabitants Land Area (Dunsmsy

1914 43 12,000 400,000

1922 73 15,000 600,000

1933 135 52,000 1,260,000

1942 265 146,000 1,594,000

Progress of Jewish Industry

Year No. of Enterprises No. of Employees Annual Production

1929 2,475 10,968 LP. 2,510,000

1933 3,386 19,510 5,329,000

1937 5,606 30,040 9,109,000

1942 6,600 56,000 20,500,000

Development of Hebrew Education (Public School System)

Year No. of Schools No. of Pupils

1920-21 137 12,830

1933-34 295 27,72«

1941-42 437 62,807

Results of Health Work

Death Rate
(per 1,000 population)

Year
1927.
1935.
.1939.

Jews

13.2

8.6

7.6

Arabs (Moslems)
30.2
23.5
17.4

Infant Mortality
(per 1,000 live births)

Jews Arabs (Moslems)

116 217

64 148

54 122

'"iiSL 1 *

21/2 M -8-43
2M-2-44
I M -7-45

This Book is Due on tho Latott Data Stamped

PCL PQL PCL

MAR 24 2005

RET'D PCL

MAY 152005